My Predictions on the new American AAdvantage Program

This week, it’s rumored that the new American AAdvantage program will be released, and go into effect in March, 2015.

To tag onto the speculation, I wanted to highlight my thoughts as to what this program will include – sifting through various FlyerTalk forums, other blogger comments, and word of mouth.

Tier Levels – I think the new program will have 4 tier levels (perhaps a Silver, Gold, Platinum and Executive Platinum), with some sort of incentive for flyers who go above and beyond Executive Platinum. I think this will also include more recognition for Concierge Key members.

Upgrades – Complimentary upgrades will stay for Executive Platinum members, and all others will accumulate and use “stickers.” I do think the amount of earned upgrades will be adjusted per tier (so, a Gold may earn 4 for every 10,000 miles flown, while a Platinum will earn 6, etc.), and perhaps the amount of miles an upgrade can be used for will be adjusted (so, a 500 mile upgrade will turn into a 750 mile upgrade, etc.).

Tier Requirements – From what I’ve heard requirements for tier levels will remain the same, with the exception of earning segments. It’s being speculated that the requirements to earn a particular status based upon segments will increase.

Devaluation of Miles – I think a devaluation of miles is imminent, perhaps int the 1st quarter of 2015.

For Future: An Emphasis on Points – I think American’s program will begin to shift focus towards the points model (which is one of the ways you can already qualify for status). While I don’t think this will happen for the 2015 program, I think it will play some role in future years. I’m confident, however, that American will not go fully revenue based.

Services and Extras – I think the same high level service will be provided to Executive Platinums including complimentary food/drink in the Main Cabin, mileage redeposit waivers, and others. With the integration of a 4th tier, I expect some increased and decreased service levels to be adjusted amongst the ranks, but overall, the program as whole will remain the same (so, the benefits as a whole will remain within the 4 tiers, and things won’t be removed).

What do you think? What do you think the new AAdvantage program will look like?